Yusheng Yao on the China-U.S. Relations

With the state visit from Chinese President Hu Jintao, Yusheng Yao took a moment to react to recent media reports about the evolving relationship between the United States and China.


The U.S. And China: Rivals That May Need Each Other As this NPR story suggests, Americans then to look at future relationship between the United States and China with two possible extremes.
America has entered a new year with a rising national debt and deficit projections. Meanwhile, China continues its ascent as a global economic player. In the years to come, an economically bruised U.S. may have to share the superpower spotlight with the competition. Still, former Pentagon strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett tells NPR's Guy Raz, American hype over China's rise is overblown, while foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman predicts that China-U.S. relations will get "bumpier" over the next few years.

As our resident China expert, Yusheng Yao reflects on these two positions.

In regard to Barnett's argument that China's rise is overblown: I don't think China's rise as an economic power is overblown--the dynamic and momentum of China's growth will continue for years to come. yes, it will take decades for the most Chinese to reach the level of American middle class. But that is not very relevant. What China lags far behind is its comprehensive power (especially what Joseph Ny's definition of soft power--cultural values and political system, etc) and it will not be easy for China to narrow the gap. Barnett's another point is that the challenge for the U.S. with China is not its competition but the level of responsibility it takes to the world system. That is true; but he may underestimate China's desire to change the rules of the game, not just to follow the established rules in world politics, finance, etc. That can be a great challenge for the U.S. in the future: how much are we willing to accommodate that?

Rachman's comment on U.S./China relations as "always had elements of friendship, cooperation and rivalry" can stand when we think of the more recent relationship of past 15 years. If we push the relationship back to the late 80s and early 90s, we found much difficult time after Tiananmen, and then before Nixon came to China, the two countries had been deadly enemies. For the present, when U.S. economy is not good and China is booming, China is perceived as taking unfair advantage of the bilateral and world trade system. I agree with Rachman that the bilateral relations will be bumpier in the next five years and I would go further to say that the relationship will be more bumpier as the balance of power is shifting between the two on more issues.